Last week, the “collateral damage” of the Iraq war on the economies of the region began to become evident. American Airlines, the carrier’s largest passenger airline in the region are reducing their flights may be about to enjoy the protection of Chapter 11 (bankruptcy). BWIA, LIAT and Air Jamaica, are also under pressure and need more Government funding. The problems are not a reflection of the economic uncertainty caused by war, especially in traffic and tourism in the region.
In the months leading up to military action, predictions about the general economic impact depended on whether the presumption of the conflict would be short and relatively simple, or if instead it would be long and complicated. On the eve of the conflict immediately, global markets experienced huge increases in the stock market, while oil prices collapsed, saying earlier market expectations of a quick victory for the coalition. This forecast was based on a widely publicized capitulation Iraqi forces, the collapse of the administration of Saddam Hussein, making the oil fields of Iraq and establishment in the country of a democratic government, pro-Western. The restoration and expansion of Iraqi oil production under the control of the West, undermine the monopoly of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and bring the real price of this line to the low levels were reached before 1973. This will stimulate global markets for the bag, boost investment and international trade, which would lead to a rapid global economic recovery and sustained, including tourism, because the world would become a safer place.
In To the extent that the war is entering its third week, this scenario seems less and less likely. The determined resistance from Iraqi forces, using a combination of conventional and unconventional methods, supports the projection points to a prolonged conflict without a clear victory. For their part, long-term effects are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, without any degree of confidence. For example, a prolonged conflict would increase the financial costs of military action and could have a substantial impact on the budget deficit U.S. Possible consequences include pressure on the U.S. dollar, interest rates in USD higher and greater global economic instability.
Another possible consequence would be related to trade negotiations in the international arena. Some fear that the political ruptures generated by military action can be extended to the preparations for the upcoming Ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organization, and that indirectly affect the growth of world trade activity. Others believe that this is unlikely, since all countries are concerned that the meeting will achieve successful results. A projection problem is the increased risk of terrorism. The highest incidence of loss of civilian life and the physical occupation of Iraq by western forces could lead to an increase in the ranks of potential terrorists than the type of fans of Al-Qaeda to include Arab and Muslim moderate persuasion, which would lead to greater fears about the safety of air travel.
None of them are intended consequences, but a priori planning responsible and realistic demand that they be taken into account in political and economic equations. In light of this situation, regionalism in the Wider Caribbean will face is new and unprecedented. The difficulties being experienced by airlines in the region, for example, underscore the urgent need to implement a plan of integration of regional airlines, or at least a plan of cooperation. For years it has been proposing a plan like this, argued by studies that show the tangible benefits that would accrue from cooperation.
The alternative to such integration / cooperation is that one or more airlines to declare cease and no longer offers services. There is also the possibility of foreign takeover, which the region would become even more dependent on foreign conveyors. Any of these alternatives have negative implications for regional tourism.